Monday, December 21, 2009

Dec 21 , 2009




Hi Traders ...
So how you are doin ? Surely everyone good rite ..... Firstly, I am sorry for not updating the market forecast since Monday last week. Really sorry for inconvenience caused matter. I am just goin JB for vacation... hehhehe

So what we have today in Fundamental Analysis


In Fundamental Analysis...it shows not much big event that can impact the market
movement.Maybe it was because this Friday is Christmas Eve,so i am thinking that market
volatility very light.
Today we just have Core Retail Sales for CAD, and form forecast it will Bearish for CAD.
Nevermind, let us see for the chart analysis and see what we have

GBP/USD

For the chart pattern : I cant see any chart pattern appear in H1 chart here.
MACD : seems like breakout gonna be happen within 2 hrs time.I can say that it will breakout up since MACD already at upper 0 level
SSD : at overbought area and pointing down,I can say that it will Bearish for the 1st 2hrs before it move to the its directional
So traders prepare got LONG in GBP/USD ...

EUR/USD
Chart Pattern says nothing.But my signal shows something...What is that ?? There is a big bullish ball and it will Bullish in a little time soon.
MACD : say so cause it already in upper 0 level
SSD : at overbought and will bearish a while and will give a very good movement after that
Traders can plan their order for LONG either find a very lowest point or just do a little money management to see sustaining power

Happy trading !!! See you tomorrow ...

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Dec 15 , 2009




Hi Traders ...
So how your trading goes ? I was hope that everyone can understand how to trade base on what I was explained.So, last week I was not update this blog, any question or comment ? ...

Ok..So what we have today in Fundamental ...

We have 3 High Impact Fundamental ...
  1. CPI for GBP - it show that forecast (1.8%) is more than previous (1.5%).So,here i can say that GBP currency will Bearish.
  2. German ZEW Economics Sentiment for EUR - Forecast (50.1) is less than previous (51.1).So i can say that EUR currency will Bearish
  3. PPI for USD - It show that forecast (0.8%) is more than previous (0.3%). So I can say that tonite USD currency will Bearish.

That is what Fundamental Analysis said.So, how about our chart said ? Let we see them ...

EUR/USD

In Chart pattern : it seem like no pattern able that we can see there..
MACD : it was said that a very spike movement goin Bearish as per arrow show during the fundamental release, and will Bullish during the fundamental for USD.
Stochastics : It show that already passed the oversold line.A little bit reversal will happen and it continue the Bearish movement later.
So in my forecast is, EUR/USD will continue its trend which is Bearish....

GBP/USD
In Chart pattern : it seem like no pattern able that we can see there..
MACD : it was said that a very spike movement goin Bearish as per arrow show during the fundamental release, and will Bullish during the fundamental for USD.To confirm that,wait until MACD histogram under the 0 level
Stochastics : It show that pointed to the oversold line.A little bit reversal will happen and it continue the Bearish movement later.
So in my forecast is, GBP/USD is still under unknown direction.Some other analyzer said that everything is waiting the right time for breakout.

Happy trading fellas ... See you tomorrow for the result :)

Friday, December 4, 2009

Dec 04 , 2009




Hai Traders ..
How are you doin ? How yesterday forecast .. ? Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd make a very high movement once forecast posted and trully same as expected. But during announcement, i was told that a little bit bearish, unfortunately it really been bearish until now..
Nevermind, that is why after announcement came up with the result, always re-do the analysis and for sure as a trader, you always have your decisions..

So, what we have today ? NON-FARM PAYROLL ... The most wanted Fundamental that are being waiting all over the world. My advice is for those who are really amateur, please keep
away from your trading account, and learn their movement...

Here is the News :




The Non-Farm Employment change and The Unemployment Rate ...So, how to get in the
market during this announcement ? It always come to your plan, and trade your plan..
As per conclusion, I can say that US having decrease their jobless, that is why previous values is -190K, and forecast is -119K.
So,for tonite USD become Bullish. Plan your trade, enter the position and right after result available, re-do the analysis and make your decision either continue your order or replace it ..

Ok now, what we have in the chart ..
EUR/USD


Chart Pattern : Inverse Flag - continue Bearish
MACD : position below 0 level, continue trend for Bearish movement
Stochastic : Pointing upward to make overbougt before turn down back
My analysis EUR/USD will bullish after London open market, and after all will be sideway until NFP announcement been made their result.As per 1st fundamental analy
sis-USD will bullish,and i will plan the trade to SHORT the EUR/USD before announcement until result available,then i will choose my decision either continue or reverse position.

GBP/USD
In GBP/USD market, we can see that yesterday movement Bearish after London open market until today.
Chart Pattern : NONE - after reach Lower High
MACD : still under 0 level and it will continue Bearish
Stochastic : pointing upward
My forecast is this movement will Bullish since it in the uptrend channel for 1H chart,until the NFP announcement, plan the trade to short GBP/USD, once result available I will come back to make the decision.

So,let we see for the movement and we learn how NFP will impact the market. Some rumors said, EUR/USD will change Down Trend.
Whatever it is, trader just trade either using Technical and fundamental analysis

HAPPY TRADING !!

ps: Tomorrow will have Technically Forex Course :)


Thursday, December 3, 2009

Dec 03, 2009




Hi fellow traders ..
So how your trading yesterday ? Hope that will be good, is just GBP/USD out of forecast, rite ?
Nevermind, aw what I was told before, pass is pass, forecast the future.That are circumstances being a trader...

So, what we have today in Fundamental Analysis ?


SO today gonna be high impact fundamental movement market price.
  • Min Bid Rate for EUR
  • ECB press conference
  • Unemployment claim for US resident
  • US Governor Ben Bernanke
As per conclusion, I can say that during the Bid rate and press conference since the prove on their current economic flow, movement gonna be Bullish for the EUR, it just a little Breakout Down once announcement released.
For the unemployment US resident, it show still weak for USD and gonna continue Bearish.
So, now let we see for the Chart Market movement

EUR/USD

So, in chart pattern : NONE
MACD : it show Trend continue BULLISH support by Signal Ball BLUE color
but in Stochastic : it have some contestant, since it was already on overbought- it will bring the market down 1st, afterall continue with their trend-Bullish
So, trader shud find the retracement level on bullish market now, and enter your position for buy, and dont forget to recheck while fundamental arrive.

GBP/USD

So in GBP/USD chart, not make too much different as EUR/USD
So, in chart pattern : NONE
MACD : it show Trend continue BULLISH support by Signal Ball BLUE color
but in Stochastic : it have some contestant, since it was already on overbought- it will bring the market down 1st, afterall continue with their trend-Bullish

So,what are you waiting for !!If you already learned all the technical indicator form me,you already know that I was told 9-types of entering the market.THE only one who will decide is your last fingure to become 10. Just do a little bit more analysis, and enter your trade.
This weekend, i'm gonna have a Technically Forex Classes as per announcement side. Dont hesitate to contact me

Happy Trading !! See you tomorrow with a VERY BIG EVENT OF EVERY MONTH!!

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Dec 02 , 2009




Hi traders !!
So yesterday givin you all profit rite ? Ok then, yesterday is passed already. When you are traders, pass is pass, future is your determination . Everyday is a new day for you. You have to analysis and forecast the market, focus and dont chaos ..

What today in Fundamental Analysis ... ?


Oh..so today will have big movement rite ? Since have ADP Non- Farm Employment
Change...The thing is, USD gonna be Bullish while this Fundamental happen

Ok now, let see what we have on charts
EUR / USD

Chart patterm : NON
Trend : Bullish - Trendline will touch the highest and extreamlly bearish after that, So during ADP EU will bearish
MACD : what we have here is the Convergence on Chart and Divergence on Oscillator- It stongly support our forecast that EU gonna be bearish for today movement
Stochastic : Already overbought

GBP / USD
Chart patterm : the chart soon will form Double-Top. So nothing much options we have unless park your order either at previous high or at arrow that i draw(breakout down)
MACD : is decreasing on red color - so to confirm that strongly bearish movement, please be sure that next red histogram appear under 0 level
Stochastic : It strongly support the chart gonna create double-top

Ps : Other word is please be make sure your stop-loss for GBP/USD since they are volatile

Happy trading !!



Tuesday, December 1, 2009

Dec 01 , 2009




Hai Traders ,
How all of your trading ? Hopefully it will be great ... So, December onward I will post all the Daily Market Forecast for your guide ...

So Let us start with Economic Calender :



What's HOT today ??
USD ISM manufacturing Index
Pending Home Sales
Here I see that US gonna be bearish ..

So let we open chart using an custom indicator :
All chart as my forecast is using H1 chart

EUR / USD

Chart Pattern : Double-Bottom signal UP
MACD colored : Trend Continue on Bullish Movement
Stochastic Colored : OverBought , seems like have a little bit retracement for a while

So Trader , in H1 chartd, just drag a Fibo and a retracement level 61.8 , 50 or 38.2 level be your entry level for BUY !!

GBP / USD
Chart Pattern : Double-Bottom signal UP
MACD colored : Trend Continue on Bullish Movement
Stochastic Colored : OverBought , seems like have a little bit retracement for a while

So Trader , in H1 chartd, just drag a Fibo and a retracement level 61.8 , 50 or 38.2 level be your entry level for BUY !! - take care of your stop loss since Gbp/Usd are volatile

Monday, November 23, 2009

Weekly 23rd Nov Forecast

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level:1.5050

Key G7 resistance levels: 1.4950/60, 1.5000, 1.5050

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

_____________________

Today's trade suggestion:

Another day – another dollar for range traders as the euro has been stuck in the 1.4800-1.5000 range since the beginning of the month. This really could break out eitherway(as it eventually will) but there are signs that the 1.5000/5050 barrier is going to be tough to break. Notice on the hourly chart that we have the makings of a “descending triangle” with lower highs each time the rally to near the range top takes place. We are currently butting up against the downward top of the triangle as I write, and I’ll be watching and waiting for signs of reversal on the hourly chart. Target for short trades is the range bottom around 1.4800 and, on a successful break lower, 1.4650.

___________________

Summary:

Sell rallies to 1.4950/60 or at higher resistance levels, target 1.4800 and then 1.4650


GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level 1.6880

Key G7 resistance levels:

1.6600/20, 1.6680, 1.6720

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal

_____________________

Today's trade suggestion:

A big bearish engulfing candle last week means that we are going to look to sell the pound into rallies this week.There is little doubt that the markets are struggling with the levels they are at presently, and this is causing a lot of quite volatile (and often unexpected) intra-day movement. This makes trading tricky and one needs to be patient and wait for the clear setups before leaping into trade positions. Resistance on the pound lies quite some distance above at 1.6600/20 and above, so we’ll have to wait for some decent counter-trend rallies before

selling. Don’t rush this process. It may be tempting to sell with out a clear signal or at lower levels, but this would be a strategic mistake!

___________________

Summary:

Sell rallies to 1.6600/20 (or higher up if this fails) Target 1.6500 and then 1.6250.



Wednesday, November 11, 2009

How To Choose The Best Forex System For You…‏

Here is a list of things you should do:

1 - When you're looking for a Forex system, course, ebook or software, use your good sense.

2 - If you're planning on buying some Forex product, choose one that has a guarantee or a free trial offer.

3 - Check a reviews website in order to know what other traders are saying about the product you're thinking of buying.

4 - Read the entire sales page of the product and if you have any question, contact the owner.

5 - Before you use the product on a real account, test it deeply on a demo account.

These simple advices might save you a lot of money and time.

There is an ideal mindset, character, and mental attitude that traders need to acquire. I say "acquire" because few people have the innate personality that makes this mindset "natural". With respect to your trading, this involves being free of anxiety, fear, despair or regret. It also involves being able to remain calm, confident, focused and disciplined in the face of adverse trading outcomes.

Here is a list of 6 advices:

1 - Trade with a Disciplined Plan:

The problem with many traders is that they take shopping more seriously than trading. The average shopper would not spend $500 without serious research and examination of the product he/she is about to purchase, yet the average trader would make a trade that could easily cost him/her $500 based on little more than a feeling or hunch.

The plan must include stop and limit levels for the trade, as your analysis should encompass the expected downside as well as the expected upside. Be sure that you have a plan in place before you start to trade.

2 - Don't Trade Based On Emotions:

This is the worst thing you can do. If you're with some kind of problem in your head that just don't let you think straight, take the day off. It's better not to make any money than losing it.

It may also happen that you just lived a losing strike. You're jut furious and you just can't wait to show that you're in charge... Don't! Stop! Take a deep breath, calm down and try to ignore what you just went through. Follow your system rules and ignore everything else.

But this isn't the only case. You might just be on a winning strike. Well, you're winning, you're the man... Stop! You're not the man. You're a trader that is being successful. If you want to keep trading well, put those emotions aside...

3 - Good Execution Good Anticipation:

Everybody knows that trading is a number game. I mean, our success is not dependent on the outcome of the next trade; our success is dependent on the overall profitability of many trades. So, while we are trading, whether the last trade we did was profitable or not is definitely not important. There is no point drawing conclusions on the outcome of just one -or even a few-trades. We can only access our anticipation skills when we have made a reasonable number of trades and see the longer-term result of our action. It is so important that when we are trading, our goal should be focus on executing our trades with ruthless efficiency and to judge only that. If you consider the ways that you lose money trading, you will find that it is down to poor execution, rather than poor anticipation.

4 - Cut Your Losses Early and Let Your Profits Run:

This simple concept is one of the most difficult to implement and is the cause of most traders' demise. Most traders violate their predetermined plan and take their profits before reaching their profit target because they feel uncomfortable sitting on a profitable position.

These same people will easily sit on losing positions, allowing the market to move against them for hundreds of pips in hopes that the market will come back.

In addition, traders who have had their stops hit a few times only to see the market go back in their favor once they are out, are quick to remove stops from their trading on the belief that this will always be the case. Stops are there to be hit, and to stop you from losing more than a predetermined amount. You simply allow your profits on the winners to run and make sure that your losses are minimal. What is it about cutting a loss that is so hard?

5 - Do Not Over Trade:

One of the most common mistakes that traders make is leveraging their account too high by trading much larger sizes than their account should prudently trade. Leverage is a double-edged sword. Just because one lot of currency only requires $1000 as a minimum margin deposit, it does not mean that a trader with $5000 in his account should be able to trade 5 lots. One lot is $100,000 and should be treated as a $100,000 investment and not the $1000 put up as margin.

Most traders analyze the charts correctly and place sensible trades, yet they tend to over leverage themselves. As a consequence of this, they are often forced to exit a position at the wrong time. A good rule of thumb is to never use more than 5% of your account at any given time.

6 - Do Not Marry Your Trades:

The reason trading with a plan is the #1 tip is because most objective analysis is done before the trade is executed. Once a trader is in a position, he tends to analyze the market differently in the hopes that the market will move in a favorable direction rather than objectively looking at the changing factors that may have turned against your original analysis. This is especially true for losses. Traders with a losing position tend to marry their position, which causes them to disregard the fact that all signs point towards continued losses.

Well, that's it.

Sunday, November 8, 2009

Weekly Forecast Ahead

Risk assets are levitating a la Wile E. Coyote

News that the US unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 10.2% failed to dent risk appetites as seen in stocks, at least in the immediate aftermath on Friday (more on the data below). Commodities, however, did register the pain of rising unemployment and the implicit hit to demand, with the CRB index dropping to its lowest level this month, and now down about 5% from the Oct 21 high. JPY-crosses also responded appropriately to the downbeat labor market news, erasing most of the week's gains. The USD, however, failed to see much strength overall. In a sense, that's to be expected after the Fed reaffirmed its commitment to maintain exceptionally low rates for an extended period of time, a decision which was reinforced by the soft jobs news. But there's also the 'risk on/risk off' correlation, and while stocks managed to rebound, the USD remained under pressure.

In a scene reminiscent of the Wile E. Coyote/ Roadrunner cartoons, stocks seem to have run off a cliff, but are hanging in mid-air until they stop, take a look down and then plunge into the canyon. We view this past week's rebound in stocks and accompanying set-back in the USD as a correction after the larger reversal seen in the last week of Oct. The S&P 500 is holding below the broken trend line that guided the move higher since March, currently at 1070/71, along with the 21-day sma. A re-test of a technical break point is normal and we think that's the case with this past week's price action. EUR/USD followed shares higher after basing out above key trend line support, basically the equivalent of the S&P trend line, at 1.4600/20. The euro effectively retraced 61.8% of the decline from the 1.5060 high to 1.4620 low, another very normal corrective movement. We think a combination of excessive USD-short positioning, increasing risk aversion in light of the weak US data, and possibly some verbal support are likely to return to weigh on risk assets and support the USD.

G20 and Eurozone Fin. Min.'s may lend USD verbal support vs. the EUR in the approach to Nov MPC

The G20 is gathering in St. Andrew's Scotland on Friday and Saturday and a communique is expected to be released before noon EST on Saturday. The main topic of the meeting is to orchestrate so-called exit strategies, with the main message likely to be a slower withdrawal of stimulus. On FX, the Chinese will be pressed to allow the Yuan to strengthen, but comments from PBOC head Zhou on Friday suggest the pleas will fall on deaf ears. The Europeans are also expected to press the US Treasury to step up its defense of the USD, and there is minor potential for a revision to the wording of the US strong dollar mantra. In terms of the communique, we think the standard language on currency volatility being undesirable for global growth will be retained. Any bolder comments on USD weakness, EUR strength, or currency volatility are most likely to come from individual participants. On Monday, Eurozone finance ministers will gather for a regular monthly meeting, which will continue on Tuesday, and comments on FX could be heard beginning Monday evening European time. The Europeans are the most concerned about USD weakness/EUR strength as it may undermine their export competitiveness, which is the key to their nascent recovery.

Bank of England set to revise up near-term inflation forecasts

The Bank of England has already warned that "inflation is likely to rise sharply to above the 2% target in the near term, reflecting higher petrol price inflation and the reversal of last year's reduction in VAT". The revision to BoE inflation forecasts can be expected in the Bank's Quarterly Inflation Report due on November 11 but crucially upward revisions to inflation are unlikely to have any significant impact on expectation for BoE interest rate policy. Over the past couple of months the BoE have taken every opportunity to warn of the forthcoming rise in near-term inflation forecasts. At the same time the Bank has continued to stress that excess capacity will continue to bear down on price pressures over the medium-term. Despite signs of improvement in the UK economy, GDP failed to turn positive in Q3 suggesting the recovery in the UK economy is lagging that of most other G10 nations. While this year's rise in oil prices has shown up in the 2.6% m/m rise in Oct PPI input, the lagging impact of last year fall in oil is still having an impact; PPI y/y remains subdued. Even if the weaker pound vs the EUR and higher oil prices push input costs higher, the weakness of the consumer sector suggests that producers/retailers have little pricing power. UK interest rates are likely to remain at their 0.5% low at least until the latter half of 2010.

QE could be phased out by February

Low expectations for medium term inflation in the UK combined with disappointing growth in money supply meant that many proponents of quantitative easing were disappointed that the BoE opted for a relatively conservative allocation of GBP25 bln in November. While QE has no doubt played an important part in helping the financial system move away from crisis, the lack of response in either money supply or inflation indices could be illustrating that it is a policy unable to lend significant support to the real economy. By opting for GBP25 bln this month rather than GBP 50 bln, the BoE was probably hedging its bets but it seems likely this will be the last extension of the plan meaning that QE could be phased out by February.

While the change in the BoE's inflation forecasts this week is unlikely to bring forward rate hikes, the news could lead some short-term support and encourage cable back towards the USD1.6680 recent high. Significant upside in cable could be difficult, however, failing a break by EUR/GBP below 0.8900. The 0.8920/00 area is likely to continue providing solid support for EUR/GBP.

Somber US employment report makes for ominous outlook

US nonfarm payrolls slipped a touch more than expected in October, falling -190K on the month. The real shock was the jump in the unemployment rate to an eye-popping 10.2% from a prior 9.8%. This will make for some bold headlines over the weekend and should weigh on consumer confidence further in the short-term. The details of the report also suggest that the labor market has still not bottomed and we retain our cautious view with regards to risk assets and short-term constructive view on the USD and JPY specifically.

The surprise in the unemployment rate will without a doubt lead to a ratcheting up in forecasts for where that number will peak. Indeed, that we will eventually surpass the 11% mark sometime next year now looks like a foregone conclusion. The leading indicators of the employment market (mainly jobless claims and hours) have yet to show any marked improvement. For all the talk of the downturn in the trend of initial jobless claims, continuing claims remains near all-time highs. Indeed, those folks in state and federal programs still total around 9 million and this metric has merely moved sideways in recent weeks.

The monthly drop in aggregate hours worked is also ominous. Historically, the annual rate of hours has bottomed and bounced sharply as the recession comes to an end. This data point remains well in negative terrain on an annual basis and has shown little improvement on a sequential basis to boot. We know much has been made about the increase in temp employment but this is only a good leading indicator of employment activity if the pace of job declines in other sectors slows significantly - something that has yet to happen.

Fundamentally weak labor markets in the US suggest a market that will trade in choppy fashion into year-end at best, and much lower at worst. Keeping in mind recent inter-market correlations that are unlikely to break over the next couple of months, a major stock market correction would still favor USD and JPY the most. This also makes for a sideways USD/JPY market so selling other yen crosses on rallies makes more sense.

Key data and events to watch next week

The United States calendar is on the light side in the week ahead. The NFIB business optimism index and the IBD/TIPP consumer sentiment indicator kick things off on Tuesday. The usual initial jobless claims, oil inventory numbers and monthly budget statement are on deck Thursday while Friday rounds out the week with the trade balance and the University of Michigan sentiment index.

It is not terribly busy in the Eurozone either. Monday starts the action with French business confidence, German trade and German industrial production. The German ZEW economic sentiment survey, French industrial production, German consumer prices, and the Eurozone ZEW survey are all up on Tuesday. Friday closes out the week with Eurozone GDP reports. Look for the Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting starting Monday evening CET and continuing on Tuesday - remarks on currencies are always possible.

The economic calendar in the UK is heavily weighted to early in the week. Tuesday has the BRC retail sales monitor and the trade balance on tap while Wednesday brings the employment report and the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report.

Japan has a characteristically light week. The trade balance will be important to watch on Monday while machine tool orders are the highlight Tuesday. Friday rounds out the week with industrial production and consumer confidence.

Canada also has a limited amount of events lined up. Housing starts are due on Monday while new home prices are up on Thursday. International trade and new motor vehicle sales close things out on Friday.

It is pretty busy down under. In Australia we'll see home loans on Monday, business conditions and consumer confidence on Tuesday, and inflation expectations and the employment report on Thursday. New Zealand has credit card spending on Monday and retail sales on Wednesday

Thursday, November 5, 2009

ADP, ISM FOMC Preview



Watch the 200K Mark in ADP

The Oct ADP survey on private payrolls (13:15 GMT) is expected at -190K after -254K and -277K in Sep and Aug respectively. Markets may watch whether the ADP decline falls below the 200K would dampen current gains in US equity futures.

That could especially be the case in the event that the
Oct services ISM (15:00 GMT) falls short of the expected 51.5 figure, following 50.9 and 48.4 in Sep and Aug respectively. Said differently, risk currencies and equities may resume their Wednesday rebound in case of an ADP reading better than -200K and ISM above 51.5. Also watch the new orders andemployment components of the ISM, both of which improved in Sept to 54.2 and 44.3 respectively. A rise in the employment component coupled with a sub -200K reading in ADP could be especially positive for GBP, CAD and EUR.

“Exceptionally low … for extended period”

Markets may also scrutinize whether today’s FOMC statement maintains “exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period”. Any adjustment in the “timing” element of this phrase could be interpreted as a signal towards earlier exit strategy, which appears unlikely at this time.

We may see minor adjustments regarding the economic assessment but notable change in the reference to the program of agency MBS purchases appears unlikely. Recognizing the stabilization in the housing sector and financial markets may once again be offset by a more constrained outlook with regards to jobs, credit and income growth. With regards to
inflation, the FOMC seems to have no reason to depart from its current outlook on price growth being “subdued” and cost pressures dampened.

GBPUSD rallies past the $1.6530s after UK services PMI surged to a 26-month high in Sep at 56.9 from 55.3. Markets appear split between whether the BoE will expand QE by an additional £25 bln or £50 bln. The reason some expect £25 bln is partly related to avoiding excessive sterling weakness, especially with major central banks seeking to adopt gradual steps towards policy normalization, the BoE might not want to push further into the extreme side of the easing spectrum.

GBPUSD may test the $1.6575-80 resistance in the event of appetite-friendly US data. Any additional gains may become capped at $1.66 on market cautiousness ahead of tomorrow’s BoE decision.

EURUSD
seems to require positive US data for risk appetite to lift it above $1.4800, but the $1.4835-40 resistance may impose itself as long as the FOMC does the unlikely action of extending its asset purchase program. Some appear sceptical with the euros’ recent price action, especially as it has not closed above $1.4770 since last week. Any disappointment from US data could trigger further downside towards the $1.4680 support, with a 60% chance probability for seeing $1.4550 before week’s end./

Aussie lags behind after an unexpected monthly decline in Australian retail sales (-0.2% from +0.9%). Considering yesterday’s “dovish rate hike” from the RBA, AUDUSD and AUDJPY could become the primary losers from any recurring wave of risk aversion. AUDUSD faces interim resistance at 0.9130, followed by 0.9220, with downside support standing at 0.8950. We still call attention to a looming potential break of the 2-month trend line support at 0.8930, after which emerges 0.8850 and 0.8680.
AUDJPY attempts a recovery above 83.00 but any emerging gains appear capped at 83.30, while support holds at 81.00.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Price-Oscillator Divergences Explained

Bearish Regular Divergence – price makes a higher high while the oscillator makes a lower high. This is a warning or indication of a potential impending bearish reversal after an uptrend.

Bearish Regular Divergence

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Bullish Regular Divergence – price makes a lower low while the oscillator makes a higher low. This is a warning or indication of a potential impending bullish reversal after a downtrend.

Bullish Regular Divergence

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Bearish Hidden Divergence – price makes a lower high while the oscillator makes a higher high. This is a warning or indication of a potential downtrend continuation.

Bearish Hidden Divergence

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Bullish Hidden Divergence – price makes a higher low while the oscillator makes a lower low. This is a warning or indication of a potential uptrend continuation.

Bullish Hidden Divergence

Thursday, October 29, 2009

TraderPlanet Today

EUR/USD

The Euro edged higher in early Europe on Tuesday, but was again unable to make much headway with resistance below 1.4850 and was subjected to renewed selling pressure during the day.

German consumer prices provisionally rose 0.1% for October which was in line with market expectations and did not have a significant impact on currency rates.

The US durable goods data was broadly in line with expectations with a 1.0% monthly increase and an increase in capital spending provided some limited optimism over the manufacturing sector.

In contrast, the housing data was weaker than expected with new home sales declining to an annual rate of 402,00 from a downwardly-revised 417,000 the previous month. There was a drop in inventories for the month with the number of un-sold homes at the lowest level sine August 1982. Nevertheless, there were further fears over the housing outlook, especially with tax credits for first-time purchases due to expire during November.

Risk appetite deteriorated again following the housing data as Wall Street dipped significantly with particular pressure on the Nasdaq index. In response, the Euro weakened to lows near 1.47 during the US session.

There was some further speculation that the Federal Reserve will tighten its policy rhetoric at next week’s FOMC meeting which provided some dollar support. The Fed will need to tread a very careful path as it will remain very sensitive to a rose in bond yields and currency volatilities are liable to increase.

jobman_102909_1.JPG

Yen

The trend of a firmer Japanese yen persisted on Wednesday with Asian equity markets weaker with the dollar retreating to 91.20 while the yen also recovered to a 1-week high against the Euro.

The Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on Friday and there is a possibility that they will announce a timescale for removing emergency corporate funding measures, although a further delay is the more likely outcome, especially with pressure from the government. Further evidence of policy tensions between Finance Ministry and central bank would tend to undermine the yen to some extent.

As global equity markets came under further pressure, the yen strengthened to highs near 90.50 against the dollar and also secured a renewed advance to beyond 134 against the Euro.

Sterling

Sterling again found support below 1.63 against the dollar during Wednesday and secured a significant advance in US trading with a peak above 1.6450. The main catalyst for the move was a sharp Sterling advance against the Euro with some stop-loss Euro selling once there was a break of the 0.90 level.

There were no significant economic data releases during the day and Sterling was surprisingly resilient when global stock markets were subjected to renewed selling pressure. Any renewed stresses within the UK banking sector would tend to undermine the currency.

There will be further uncertainties over monetary policy ahead of next week’s Bank of England policy decision. Sterling is in a better position to gain protection from a lack of confidence in other major economies rather than any great optimism over the UK outlook.

Swiss franc

The dollar found support below 1.02 against the franc on Wednesday and strengthened to a high around 1.0270 during New York trading. The Euro drifted back to near 1.51 against the Swiss currency which will inevitably result in fresh speculation that the National Bank will intervene to prevent further franc appreciation.

The bank will certainly be on alert, but it is also likely to be cautious, especially as they will not want to get locked into a pattern of defending specific levels.

The franc will still tend to gain some defensive support when there is a deterioration in risk appetite.

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Australian dollar

The headline Australian consumer inflation data was marginally higher than expected with a 1.0% increase in prices for the third quarter, but the data was not strong enough to trigger increased expectations of a 0.50% interest rate increase at next week's Reserve Bank meeting and this curbed Australian dollar support as at least a 0.25% increase is already priced in.

Risk appetite was also generally weaker which encouraged profit taking and there was a low near 0.9070 in Asia. The Australian currency was subjected to renewed selling pressure as Wall Street weakened and there was a slide to lows below 0.8970 during New York as the break of 0.90 triggered stop-loss selling.

TraderPlanet Today

Monday, October 26, 2009

The FOREX Non-Dealing Desk Trader

ADVANTAGES OF THE NON-DEALING DESK

1. No Inherent Conflict of Interest. Non-dealing desk brokerage firms do not trade against their clients. As facilitators of trading, they do not take positions that may from time-to-time conflict with the interests of individual traders.

2. Market Access. Non-dealing desk brokers offer every trader, big and small, equal access to the interbank market. The rates (bid and ask prices) on a non-trading desk platform are not those set by an individual broker but those derived from active trading between participating banks, institutional investors, FCM's and individual traders. The process itself makes every trader regardless of size an independent market maker.

3. Anonymity: Trading is done in total anonymity - the non-dealing desk broker does not know or have a need to know your positions so stop loss orders are not/cannot be targeted for takeout when a broker has a need to meet liquidity requirements.

Note: There is a growing suspicion that dealing desk brokers spike rates to take out trades when it suits their purposes. An insider a friend of mine talked with recently, a key programmer working for a dealing desk brokerage firm on the East coast, acknolwedged that brokers spike rates of up to 10 pips on a routine basis and for a variety of reasons. Whether used to fill unbalanced trades, leverage the broker's own account, or to meet immediate liquity requirements, spiking is a fact of life and difficult to prove. Sooner or later he believes the NFA will find a way to document the practice, but until then a lot of dealing desk brokers will continue to manipulate rates to their own advantage. At this point, they don't have any compelling reason not to.

4. Pricing Intervention (Bias). Non-dealing desk broker rates as well as bid/ask prices come directly from the interbank system. They are not filtered or otherwise manipulated to maintain established (undisclosed) profit margins or spiked by the broker to gain a trading advantage.

5. Reorders. Non-existent. Traders never get "reorders" from a non-dealing desk because they serve no purpose - the broker has nothing to gain or compensate for.

6. Full Disclosure. The non-dealing desk broker's fees are limited and clearly disclosed.

7. Transparency. No mind games. What you see is what you get.

PERCEIVED DISADVANTAGES OF THE NON-DEALING DESK

1. The Cost of Trading: A large number of traders still believe that there is such a thing as commission free trading , a myth that continues to be perpetuated by a large number of dealing desk brokers. Make no mistake, the so-called "commission free" broker generates a transaction fee every time a trade is executed.

The difference is that the non-dealing desk fee is fully disclosed; the dealing deak broker's "fees" are not. What's more, the dealing desk's offer of fixed spreads also affects the individual trader's profitability because he/she is locked out of trades when market spreads drop below the broker's fixed differential. Instead of executing a market order, the broker responds with a reorder which guarantees that broker a fixed, undisclosed profit while at the same time depriving the trader the opportunity to take maximum advantage of a pricing move.

2. Spreads are Variable, Not Fixed. The Forex is an extremely fluid market. Spreads are in a constant state of flux and when traders trade through a non-dealing desk, they may see a dozen or more banks posting rates - the most attractive appearing above all the others.

During peak trading hours, spreads can drop to zero, a fact most traders using a dealing desk are not aware of. During off-peak hours, spreads can be considerably higher.

Non-dealing desk brokers don't offer or execute trades based on fixed spreads. They charge a nominal transaction fee. Such is not the case with the dealing desk broker. Whether interbank spreads are high or low, they just boost their rates to guarantee the profits they have imputed in their fixed spreads. They also generate an undisclosed amount of income trading against their trader clients.

IMPORTANT MESSAGE

On Sunday, November 22, FXCM LTD will be making changes to existing margin requirements for all account holders.

Margin requirements will be increasing, particularly for currency pairs with EUR or GBP as the base currency. FXCM’s experience in Hong Kong, where significantly lower leverage levels (higher margins) are mandated by law, suggests that trading with lower leverage may assist clients in trading more successfully over an extended time period. The new margin requirements are intended to reduce risk by restricting traders from using excessive leverage.

Below, you will see the a comparison of the present USD margin requirements* for some of our most popular currency pairs next to the new USD margin requirements that will take effect on November 22.

NEW MARGIN REQUIREMENTS — USD DENOMINATED ACCOUNTS**

CURRENCY PAIR

CURRENT USD MARGIN*

NEW USD MARGIN

USD/JPY AUD/USD (most USD based pairs)

$50

$50

EUR/USD EUR/JPY (most EUR based pairs)

$50

$80

GBP/USD GBP/JPY (most GBP based pairs)

$50

$85

EXOTIC PAIRS

VARIABLE BY PAIR

VARIABLE BY PAIR

*CURRENT USD MARGIN IS BASED ON AN FXCM LTD 10K STANDARD ACCOUNT WITH 0.5% MARGIN. If you have changed your default margin to be above 0.5%, your NEW margin amounts will be higher. Please consult our FAQs for details.


Based on price fluctuations, all margin requirements are subject to change without notice and will be adjusted up or down in increments of $10 for USD denominated accounts. At present, FXCM does not anticipate that margin requirements will have to be changed more than once a month. Up-to-date margin requirements are and will continue to be displayed in the “Simplified Dealing Rates” window of the trading platform by currency pair.

**VIEW A FULL LIST OF THE NEW MARGIN REQUIREMENTS BY ACCOUNT DENOMINATION

Important Notice

  • All positions and orders established after November 22 will be subject to the above margin requirements.
  • Additionally, open trades and active orders initiated prior to November 22 will also be subject to the new margin requirements.

We recommend watching this video to determine if you have sufficient margin to prevent positions from being liquidated. View Video

Visit our Online Margin Help Center for more detailed information, frequently asked questions, and steps you can take to prepare for this change. Visit Now

Why Lower Leverage Is Important
The combination of high leverage and volatile currencies can be extremely dangerous. Accounts that trade volatile pairs, such as GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, with the maximum amount of leverage tend to have less positive performance. On the other hand, traders that focus on less volatile currency pairs, such as USD/JPY and AUD/USD, and use more conservative leverage may benefit from the reduced risk that accompanies trading on lower leverage. When trading volatile currencies with high leverage, one bad trade can wipe out the profits from many good trades. By trading with less leverage, a trader can reduce the risk of a big drawdown from one bad trade.

If you have specific questions about the new margin requirements, or their effect on your risk management, please do not hesitate to contact us at +0808 234 8789 or e-mail us at info@fxcm.co.uk.

Best regards,

Forex Capital Markets Ltd.
145 Leadenhall Street
2nd Floor Rear
London EC3V 4QT
+0808 234 8789
info@fxcm.co.uk
www.fxcm.co.uk

Monday, August 31, 2009

Technical Analysis : Chart Pattern

1. Double top (reversal formation)
For obvious reasons this is often called an "M-top". The market is failing twice at a resistance and is reversing then sharply. A break of the support would indicate further losses towards the target that can be evaluated through the following procedure. The vertical width of the "M" (price difference) is projected downwards from the breakpoint of the support.




2. Double bottom (reversal formation)
The opposite of Double top. (often called an “W-top”). When the market is failing twice at a support and is reversing then sharply. A break of the resistance would indicate further rising towards the target that can be evaluated through the following procedure. The vertical width of the “W” (price difference) is projected downwards from the breakpoint of the resistance.





3. Triangle
The triangle formation can be quite difficult to analyse and the fact that a few different types of triangles exist doesn't make this task any easier. Furthermore a triangle is most commonly just a pause in a trend (continuation pattern) but can also terminate a trend (reversal formation).




4. Head and Shoulders
Formation of left shoulder forms a new high with a corrective dip, next rally forms higher high = head, correction from head goes below high of left shoulder and near as low of the left shoulder correction, breaching up trend line, rally of right shoulder does not breach head high, retracing half to three quarters of head correction..