Market Review - 15/05/2010 01:22GMT |
Euro tanks on growth fears and breakup concern |
Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD |
Update time: 16/05/2010 23:40 GMT |
Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF |
Update time: 17/05/2010 00:11 GMT |
Market Review - 15/05/2010 01:22GMT |
Euro tanks on growth fears and breakup concern |
Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD |
Update time: 16/05/2010 23:40 GMT |
Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF |
Update time: 17/05/2010 00:11 GMT |
Market Review - 30/04/2010 22:14GMT |
Euro rises on hopes of Greek aid package announcement |
Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD |
Update time: 02/05/2010 23:51 GMT |
Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF |
Update time: 03/05/2010 00:15 GMT |
Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking and on a report that home prices growth is slowing showing signs that the previous five rate hikes have been helping to allow growth to proceed moderately.
Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher this morning on risk-taking as oil is higher to just above $84. The BOC Governor Carney will be testifying today and the market may be concerned that he may attempt to further squash hopes of a rate hike in a follow up to yesterday’s quote about nothing being “pre-ordained”. The Loonie is getting an added boost from the New Zealand decision to keep rates stable.
Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher on risk-taking as well despite the fact that the RBNZ maintained rates at a record low 2.5% citing “elevated risks” in the marketplace. Future rate hikes will be forthcoming down the road provided a broad-based recovery continues. In addition, trade balance figures came in better than expected, showing signs that indeed recovery is taking place.
Euro (EUR): Unemployment figures came in much better than expected, and Euro zone confidence figures came in better than expected despite all of the problems related to the Greek debt crisis. I wrote a while back that the term “Chermany” was going to be important in the global economy in the near future. China is to the US what Germany is to the rest of the EU. They export goods and encourage debt. China has prospered due to its currency peg; and Germany due to its EU participation. If Germany continues to drag out this bailout process, they may ultimately be responsible for the Euro’s demise.
Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher this morning as UK home prices advanced the most since 2007, halting a two-day decline as risk appetite returned to the market. Expect the Pound to continue to trade sideways until after the outcome of the next week’s elections.
Dollar (USD): The Dollar is lower this morning as the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday and continued with the “extended period” language. They also signaled that sustained job gains would be necessary to consider moving on rates. Initial jobless claims figures dropped 11K to 448K, but don’t let the “Lamestream” Media fool you into believing that the jobs picture is getting better. This is most certainly a case of “less bad” and at this pace the Fed will be keeping rates low for a very LONG “extended period”.
Yen (JPY): The yen is lower on a resumption of carry trades as yield-seeking is taking place.
Within the next two weeks, we should have a good idea of what level of risk there is in the marketplace. There are two major elections occurring over that time span, one in the UK, the other in Germany.
If the current regime in Germany can maintain its power in the May 9th elections, than expect a resolution to happen rather quickly despite its unpopularity. If the balance of power should shift, then there could be further delays which could cause problems with Greece’s next debt payment due in mid-may.
So until these elections pass, I expect some range-bound trading. We will certainly have days of different measures of risk based on economic data points, but the election and subsequent resolution to the EU debt crisis is paramount.
So my bias is toward risk appetite, with a quick trigger to get out if risk-aversion should heat up. In other words, I am keeping my trading short-term and taking what the market gives me, rather than trying to guess what will take place. I advise traders out there to do the same.
Market Review - 23/04/2010 22:24GMT |
Euro rallies on short-covering after Greece announced aid request |
Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/JPY |
Update time: 25/04/2010 23:25 GMT |
Weekly Technical Outlook on GBP/USD |
Update time: 25/04/2010 23:47 GMT |
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Market Review - 17/04/2010 03:39GMT |
Dollar and yen rally on news of Goldman fraud charges |
Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD |
Update time: 18/04/2010 23:50 GMT |
Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF |
Update time: 19/04/2010 01:10 GMT |
Well , for the GBP/USD also the same as EUR/USD forecast..
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