May 17 , 2010

Market Review - 15/05/2010 01:22GMT

Euro tanks on growth fears and breakup concern The single currency penetrated last week's 14-month low of 1.2510 in Europe yesterday and tumbled below 1.2400 for the first time since November 2008 on lingering worries that austerity plans required by the EU/IMF 750 billion euro bailout package would stifle an 'already-weak' recovery in the 16-nation eurozone. Previous day's comments by Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker that he was concerned the euro area may break up while ECB's Weber said dangers were still in the financial system and such risk should not be underestimated. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's comments that Europe is in a 'very, very serious situation' continued to weigh on the euro throughout European and U.S. sessions. Euro bashing pressured the single currency on Friday as the pair was sold on every intra-day rebound. Despite brief bounce to 1.2576 near European opening on short-covering, euro tumbled again and fell below 1.2510 to 1.2432 in European mid-day. Although euro managed a modest recovery, renewed selling at 1.2534 pushed the single currency lower again and price nose-dived to a fresh 18-month low of 1.2354 in NY afternoon. Cross-selling in euro also weighed on price as eur/jpy plunged from 117.02 to 113.50 while eur/gbp fell sharply from 0.8620 to 0.8496. In other news, report showed French President Nicolas Sarkozy once threatened to pull out of the euro during the negotiation which led to the aforementioned bailout. In addition, Greece would submit a deficit-cutting progress report to EU this coming Saturday. Although the British pound fell sharply from 1.4640 to as low as 1.4496 in tandem with euro on Friday, cross buying in sterling versus the single currency somehow limited cable's intra-day downside, the pound was more resilient than euro to selling pres sure and gyrated inside aforesaid range in NY session as the market focus on Friday was euro instead of cable. Yen rallied across the board as Greek debt crisis sparked major broad-based risk aversion again, prompting investors to dump riskier assets like commodity currencies, stocks, oil and other commodities for yen and dollar as safe haven currencies, gold fell $30 from fresh record high of $1248.80 to $1218.10. Aud/jpy tumbled from 83.41 to 81.42 while gbp/jpy fell from 136.05 to 133.24 and usd/jpy also slumped from 93.10 to 91.80. European and U.S. bourses all suffered heavy losses on Friday, FTSE closed down 3.15%, DAX down 3.12%, CAC 40 down 4.59% whilst DJI closed down 1.51% and S&P 500 down 1.88%. Economic data to be released next week include : U.K. Rightmove house prices, Japan Domestic CGPI, U.K. CBI industrial trend, U.S. Empire state mfg., Net LT TIC flows and NAHB housing mrkt index on Monday, Japan Tertiary industry index, Consumer confidence, Machine tools orders, U.K. CPI, Germany ZEW index, EU Trade balance ,HICP, U.S. Building permits and PPI on Tuesday, Japan Capacity utilisation, Industrial production, Canada Wholesale sales, U.S. CPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, Japan GDP , Germany PPI, U.K. Retail sales, Canada Leading indicators and U.S. Leading indicators on Thursday, Japan Leading indicators, Germany GDP, PMI, EU PMI, Germany Ifo index, EU Current account, Canada CPI and Retail sales on Friday.

Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD

Update time: 16/05/2010 23:40 GMT EUR/USD - 1.2367.. Despite staging an impressive short-covering rally fm 1.2790 to 1.3095 last Monday after the announcement of an enormous 750 bln euro stability measure forged by EU/IMF to help eurozone countries to tackle their debt problems, euro bears quickly emerged, the single ccy remained under pressure on 5 consecutive days n penetrated May's 14-month low of 1.2510 on Friday n tumbled to a 19-month low of 1.2354. Look at the chart, as daily indicators are still pointing hard down, sug- gesting MT downtrend fm 1.5145 (Nov 09') wud re-test Oct 08' low of 1.2329, below wud extend twd 1.2134, being a 'natural' 50% r of the LT rise fm 0.8228 (2000 low) to 1.6040 (Jul 08'), however, reckon psychological sup at 1.2000 wud hold on 1st testing n bring a much-needed minor correction later this week. Today, euro extended Friday's downtrend to a fresh 2010 low of 1.2339 in NZ n as long as res area at 1.2432/39 holds, weakness to 1.2300 is seen, however , o/sold condition wud limit weakness to 1.2282, being equality measure. of 1.26 85-1.2432 proj. fm 1.2535. Abv 1.2450 may risk recovery to 1.2500/10 b4 down. Click here to enlarge chart

Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF

Update time: 17/05/2010 00:11 GMT USD/CHF - 1.1350..Euro's resumption of its MT downtrend Friday helped dlr to penetrate this month's 2010 high of 1.1245, price climbed to 1.1336 in NY n then rose to 1.1356 in Asian trading, suggesting the erratic uptrend fm 0.9910 (Nov 09') wud push price to 1.4424/25 soon, being 100% measurement of 0.9910-1.0 899 measured fm 1.0435 as well as 61.8% proj. of intermediate rise fm 1.0435 to 1.1245 measured fm 1.0924. Looking at the daily chart, the early rally abv 1.0899 (Feb 24 high) sig- nals aforesaid rise fm 0.9910 has resumed, upside targets are pointing at 1.1424 , then 1.1657 (1.236 times extension of 0.9910 to 1.0899 fm 1.0435), the rising daily indicators add credence to this bullish view, however, chf's strength on crosses esp. vs eur shud prevent strg gain beyond there th is week. Today, intra-day dlr's broad-based rally (except vs yen) suggests the pair shud ratchet higher twd 1.1386 (61.8% r of 1.2298-0.9910), as the hourly oscilla tors readings wud be in o/bot territory on such move, reckon 1.1424/25 wud hold on 1st testing. Only below 1.1245 confirms temp. top n risks 1.1190/95 b4 up.

May 03 , 2010

Hai Traders ....

Here is some forecast from Ace Trader for your reference ...

Market Review - 30/04/2010 22:14GMT

Euro rises on hopes of Greek aid package announcement The euro extended its previous day's advance against the dollar on Friday on expectation that debt-strapped Greece might reach an agreement on its budget cuts and would receive a potential $159 billion in financial assistance. The single currency traded sideways in Asian session after Thursday's rebound to 1.3279, renewed buying at 1.3225 lifted price and the pair quickly climbed above 1.3279 at European opening. Intra-day buying gathered momentum partly on short-covering, euro subsequently rallied to as high as 1.3343 in New York before dipping briefly to 1.3255 but price rebounded on news EU finance ministers were summoned to attend a special meeting on Sunday, market speculated details of an aid package for Greece will be announced this weekend. Versus the Japan ese yen, the greenback moved narrowly in Asia initially but then rallied to 94.59 in European afternoon after triggering stops above 94.35 and 94.45 together with active cross selling in yen. However, the pair pared all early gains later and ended the day down 0.1% from the previous close after a government report showed the U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter. Earlier in Asian mid-day, Bank of Japan announced it had kept its overnight call rate unchanged at 0.10%. The statement of BOJ also indicated its policy board instructed staff to examine steps to support private banks on fund supplies, this would leave open the possibility that the BOJ may take steps to further bring down TIBOR, an interest rate banks use to set lending rates on corporate loans. The British pound extended its previous day's short-covering rally as short-term speculators bought sterling after latest election poll results showed the opposition Conservat ive party had a lead after Thursday's 3rd and final televised election debate between the 3 main parties, consensus showed Tories' David Cameron put on the best performance over the Liberal Democrats' Nick Clegg and Labour's Gordon Brown. Cable rose to 1.5366 in Australia before retreating in tandem with euro to 1.5316 in Asia but renewed buying at European opening pushed price to an intra-day high of 1.5390, however, when buying fizzled out, sterling retreated sharply in New York trading to 1.5253 as short-term speculators squared their long positions ahead of a 3 day long weekend. On the economic front, U.S. Q1 GDP rose by 3.2% (economists' forecast was 3.4%) whilst Q1 PCE price index increased by 1.5% versus the expectation of 1.6%. University of Michigan Survey's of Consumers' final April consumer sentiment fell to 72.2 (versus forecast of 71.0) from 73.6 in the March final reading. However, Chicago PMI rose in April to 63.8 (versus consensus 60.0 and 58.8 in Mar ch), which is the highest since April 2005. The eurozone March unemployment was 10.0% as widely expected whilst the April inflation estimated at 1.5% y/y versus 1.4% in March. In other news, Switzerland’s central bank President Philipp Hildebrand stated the central bank would counter any 'excessive' appreciation of the franc against the euro, citing the debt woes across the EU zone prompted investors to shift their money into the Swiss franc. Economic data to be released next week include: Financial markets in Japan and U.K. will be closed on Monday. Australia House price index, Swiss PMI, Germany Manufacturing PMI, EU Manufacturing PMI , U.S. PCE index, Personal income and ISM manufacturing are out on Monday, Australia RBA rate decision, Germany Retail sales, U.K. Manufacturing PMI, EU PPI , U.S. Durable goods, Pending home sales and Consumer confidence on Tuesday, U.K. N'wide Consumer Confidence, Germany Services PMI , EU Services PMI, U.K. PMI constr uction and U.S. ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday. New Zealand Unemployment, Australia Retail sales, Australia Trade balance , Swiss CPI , U.K. Services PMI , Germany Factory orders, EU ECB rate decision, U.S. Jobless claims, Productivity, Canada Ivey PMI and Building permits on Thursday. Swiss Jobless rate,Retail sales, Retail sales, Germany Industrial production, Canada Unemployment rate, U.S. Non-farm payrolls and Unemployment rate on Friday.

Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD

Update time: 02/05/2010 23:51 GMT EUR/USD - 1.3323.. Despite resumption of MT downtrend fm 1.5145 (Nov 09') to a fresh one-year low of 1.3114 last Wed. following downgrades of debt ratings of Portugal, Greece n Spain by S&P, euro managed to ratchet higher to 1.3343 as news of coordinated financial aid package by EU & IMF prompted short-covering. As the low at 1.3114 was accompanied by bullish converging signals on the hourly oscillators, subsequent rise abv the hourly signal line by the macd sug- gests a temporary low is made n choppy consolidation is seen with upside bias, however, reckon 1.3471 (61.8% r of 1.3692-1.3114) wud limit present rebound n bring strg retreat but below nr term good sup area at 1.3184-93 needed to signal downtrend has resumed n yield 1.3076 (adjust this lvl if euro moves abv 1.3365). Looking ahead, only abv 1.3692 wud 'violate' the series of lower lows n lower highs n confirm low has been formed. Intra-day, euro has eased after initial rise to 1.3365 in Australia after announcement by EU & IMF to offer aid package to Greece, below 1.3295 needed to signal upmove fm 1.3114 has ended, 1.3256, then later twd 1.3205/10. Click here to enlarge chart

Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF

Update time: 03/05/2010 00:15 GMT USD/CHF - 1.0787.. Despite resuming its MT upmove fm 0.9910 (Nov 09') to a 2010 high of 1.0925 on the back of euro's decent to a fresh one-year low of 1.3114 last Wed., profit-taking knocked dlr to as low as 1.0748 in Friday's NY session, price extended nr term decline to 1.0732 in early Australian trading. Looking at the daily chart, as long as 1.0680 holds, being 50% r of the intermediate rise fm 1.0435 to 1.0925, outlook remains mildly bullish for afore- said upmove fm 0.9910 to bring re-test of 1.0925, a firm breach of 1.0860/69 res wud add credence to this view n yield further headway twd daily chart objective at 1.1026 (Jun 09') later this week. On the downside, below sup at 1.0700 wud confirm top is in place n risk stronger correction twd 1.0537, being a 'minimum' 38.2% r of the entire rise fm 0.9910. Intra-day, as dlr has rebounded after initial euro-led weakness to 1.0732 in Australia n upside bias remains for gain to 1.0812/15, break wud signal pull- back fm 1.0925 has ended n yield further headway twd 1.0869. Only below 1.0732 defers bullishness n risks weakness to 1.0700 b4 prospect of another strg bounce.

EUR/USD Fundamental Report

U.S. Fundamental Report


Last Week’s U.S. Dollar Recap:

The Greenback had a mixed week against the other major currencies, losing significant ground against the NZD and CAD, falling a bit against Sterling and rising against both the Euro and Yen. The United States seems to be furthering its recovery somewhat, as was pointed out by U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner after the G-20 meetings held last week in Washington D.C.
Another main issue discussed at the G-20 meeting involved a possible Chinese Yuan revaluation against the U.S. Dollar. The United States has been pushing for this revaluation lately, and the idea is now also receiving support from India, Brazil and European Union financial officials, as well as the IMF. Nevertheless, the risk of rising inflation in the United States continues to persist. Thisfact was highlighted in Thursday’s PPI release which showed the headline number
rose 0.7% month-on-month versus the market’s consensus for a 0.4% rise. Still, the core PPI number remained in line with the market at 0.1%. With respect to the U.S. housing market, Thursday’s Existing Home Sales also showed some improvement, coming in at 5.35M versus the 5.28M expected and the 5.01M reading seen the previous month. Friday’s New Home Sales number also improved, showing a 411K versus the 326K expected and the previous number of
324K that was revised up from 308K. With that said, house prices continued to fall last month as sellers became more realistic about the current level of prices and mark their properties lower, as was shown by the House Price Index which fell 0.2% month-on-month.
Friday’s Durable Goods Orders showed an impressive rise in the core number of 2.8%, versus the consensus of 0.7% and the previous 1.7% print that was revised upwards from an initial 0.9%. Nevertheless, this improvement was offset by the fall in non-core Durable Goods Orders of -1.3% versus the 0.2% rise expected, and the upward revision of 1.1% to the previous month versus its original 0.5% print.


This Week’s U.S. Outlook:

The U.S. economic calendar has another important week coming up after the biannual IMF Meeting in Washington D.C. concludes on Sunday. The U.S. data releases start on Tuesday with the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (1.4%Y/Y), CB Consumer Confidence (53.7), and testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke in Washington D.C. before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform and the Richmond Manufacturing Index (7). On Wednesday, the key FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate announcement is expected to leave the rate unchanged at <0.25%. Thursday has Initial Jobless Claims (442K), while Friday features Advance GDP
(3.4% and 0.9% Price Index Q/Q), the Employment Cost Index (0.6% Q/Q), Chicago PMI (60.0), Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment (71.2) and Revised UofM Inflation Expectations (last 2.9%). Saturday has a speech by FOMC Member Duke scheduled in Philadelphia.

Some sweets from Forex Blog.In the forex market:

Aussie (AUD): The Aussie is higher on risk-taking and on a report that home prices growth is slowing showing signs that the previous five rate hikes have been helping to allow growth to proceed moderately.

Loonie (CAD): The Loonie is higher this morning on risk-taking as oil is higher to just above $84. The BOC Governor Carney will be testifying today and the market may be concerned that he may attempt to further squash hopes of a rate hike in a follow up to yesterday’s quote about nothing being “pre-ordained”. The Loonie is getting an added boost from the New Zealand decision to keep rates stable.

Kiwi (NZD): The Kiwi is higher on risk-taking as well despite the fact that the RBNZ maintained rates at a record low 2.5% citing “elevated risks” in the marketplace. Future rate hikes will be forthcoming down the road provided a broad-based recovery continues. In addition, trade balance figures came in better than expected, showing signs that indeed recovery is taking place.

Euro (EUR): Unemployment figures came in much better than expected, and Euro zone confidence figures came in better than expected despite all of the problems related to the Greek debt crisis. I wrote a while back that the term “Chermany” was going to be important in the global economy in the near future. China is to the US what Germany is to the rest of the EU. They export goods and encourage debt. China has prospered due to its currency peg; and Germany due to its EU participation. If Germany continues to drag out this bailout process, they may ultimately be responsible for the Euro’s demise.

Pound (GBP): The Pound is higher this morning as UK home prices advanced the most since 2007, halting a two-day decline as risk appetite returned to the market. Expect the Pound to continue to trade sideways until after the outcome of the next week’s elections.

Dollar (USD): The Dollar is lower this morning as the Fed left rates unchanged yesterday and continued with the “extended period” language. They also signaled that sustained job gains would be necessary to consider moving on rates. Initial jobless claims figures dropped 11K to 448K, but don’t let the “Lamestream” Media fool you into believing that the jobs picture is getting better. This is most certainly a case of “less bad” and at this pace the Fed will be keeping rates low for a very LONG “extended period”.

Yen (JPY): The yen is lower on a resumption of carry trades as yield-seeking is taking place.

Within the next two weeks, we should have a good idea of what level of risk there is in the marketplace. There are two major elections occurring over that time span, one in the UK, the other in Germany.

If the current regime in Germany can maintain its power in the May 9th elections, than expect a resolution to happen rather quickly despite its unpopularity. If the balance of power should shift, then there could be further delays which could cause problems with Greece’s next debt payment due in mid-may.
So until these elections pass, I expect some range-bound trading. We will certainly have days of different measures of risk based on economic data points, but the election and subsequent resolution to the EU debt crisis is paramount.

So my bias is toward risk appetite, with a quick trigger to get out if risk-aversion should heat up. In other words, I am keeping my trading short-term and taking what the market gives me, rather than trying to guess what will take place. I advise traders out there to do the same.

US Fundamental Report

U.S. Fundamental Report


Last Week’s U.S. Dollar Recap:

The Greenback had a mixed week against the other major currencies, losing significant ground against the NZD and CAD, falling a bit against Sterling and rising against both the Euro and Yen. The United States seems to be furthering its recovery somewhat, as was pointed out by U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner after the G-20 meetings held last week in Washington D.C.

Another main issue discussed at the G-20 meeting involved a possible Chinese Yuan revaluation against the U.S. Dollar. The United States has been pushing for this revaluation lately, and the idea is now also receiving support from India, Brazil and European Union financial officials, as well as the IMF.

Nevertheless, the risk of rising inflation in the United States continues to persist. This fact was highlighted in Thursday’s PPI release which showed the headline number rose 0.7% month-on-month versus the market’s consensus for a 0.4% rise. Still, the core PPI number remained in line with the market at 0.1%. With respect to the U.S. housing market, Thursday’s Existing Home Sales also showed some improvement, coming in at 5.35M versus the 5.28M expected and the 5.01M reading seen the previous month. Friday’s New Home Sales number also improved, showing a 411K versus the 326K expected and the previous number of 324K that was revised up from 308K. With that said, house prices continued to fall last month as sellers became more realistic about the current level of prices and
mark their properties lower, as was shown by the House Price Index which fell 0.2% month-on-month. Friday’s Durable Goods Orders showed an impressive rise in the core number of
2.8%, versus the consensus of 0.7% and the previous 1.7% print that was revised upwards from an initial 0.9%. Nevertheless, this improvement was offset by the fall in non-core Durable Goods Orders of -1.3% versus the 0.2% rise expected, and the upward revision of 1.1% to the previous month versus its original 0.5% print.


This Week’s U.S. Outlook:

The U.S. economic calendar has another important week coming up after the biannual IMF Meeting in Washington D.C. concludes on Sunday. The U.S. data releases start on Tuesday with the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI (1.4%Y/Y), CB Consumer Confidence (53.7), and testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke in Washington D.C. before the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform and the Richmond Manufacturing Index (7). On Wednesday, the key FOMC Statement and Fed Funds Rate announcement is expected to leave the rate unchanged at <0.25%. Thursday has Initial Jobless Claims (442K), while Friday features Advance GDP (3.4% and 0.9% Price Index Q/Q), the Employment Cost Index (0.6% Q/Q), Chicago PMI (60.0), Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment (71.2) and Revised UofM Inflation Expectations (last 2.9%). Saturday has a speech by FOMC Member Duke scheduled
in Philadelphia.

Forex Market Editorial

Forex Market Editorial
Risk aversion returned to the markets last week, as forex players
generally preferred U.S. Dollars and the Japanese Yen while avoiding
the increasingly risky Euro and Sterling.
Furthermore, the Greek sovereign debt crisis continues to put pressure
on the Euro, despite a tentative agreement worked out between the
European Union and the IMF for a €45B joint rescue plan. The Euro
will likely remain under pressure over the coming months with the
Greek debt situation continuing to weigh on Euro sentiment. Also,
since other E.U. member countries such as Portugal, Spain and Ireland
continue to have their own sovereign debt issues and will most likely
also require assistance from the other E.U. members, the Euro seems
likely to suffer further. Also, the economic fallout from the recent
grounding of air travel in Europe due to the Icelandic volcano eruption
may put additional pressure on the Euro.
The commodity currencies, especially the CAD and AUD, have also
made considerable gains against the Greenback because of rising oil
and gold prices, and it looks like they will continue in their upward
trend for the foreseeable future. The interest rate spreads between the
commodities currencies and the U.S. Dollar and the Euro are also
increasingly favoring the AUD. This is also the case with the CAD which
closed under parity with the U.S. Dollar last week after its bond yield
spread with the U.S. made a record high.
In addition, the Pound Sterling will likely sell off further as the United
Kingdom moves into its May 6th elections. The selling pressure will
also rise along with the prospects of a hung Parliament, and Cable will
continue its recent highly-volatile trading at least until then. Also,
since the U.K’s government spending is now roughly on a par with
Greece’s as a percentage of GDP, this makes the U.K. fiscal policy
potentially problematic in future for the British currency.
Overall, the U.S. Dollar seems to be holding its own on the global
currency front, with a strong U.S. stock market and improving
stateside economic numbers last week that included favorable housing
and Core Durable Goods. Furthermore, the outlook against the U.S.
Dollar tends to favor the AUD, NZD and CAD over the prospects seen
for the JPY, the EUR and GBP, which will probably continue to come
under pressure in the near term.

Apr 26 , 2010

Hello traders ...
Many sorry since i cant have any update yet..Anyway, here is some sweets from Ace Trader ...

Good Luck then .. See you !!

Market Review - 23/04/2010 22:24GMT

Euro rallies on short-covering after Greece announced aid request The single currency rebounded strongly from one-year low against the buck after Greece announced it will activate a financial aid package while Germany said it is prepared to commit to a plan that will bail out the debt-strapped country whilst the greenback strengthened to a two-week high against the Japanese yen on Friday as U.S. March new-home sales rose the most in almost five decades. Mounting anxiety that Greece would default on its debt weighed on the single currency in Australia. Short term speculators sold the Euro on concerns that the Group of 20 industrialized and developed nations might not come up with an effective plan to address Greece's debt problems. Price dropped to 1.3201 in Australian session before stabilizing. However, euro rebounded strong ly from there on active demand by sovereign names as well as announcement by Greece's PM George Papandreou that Greece would soon ask for the activation of emergency loans from the Eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, though the European Commission had no immediate comment. Euro climbed steadily higher vs usd and other currencies in New York session and rallied to as high as 1.3400, price closed near the day's high at 1.3383. Despite trading sideways initially in Asia and Europe, the greenback rallied to 94.43 (two-week high) against the yen on renewed risk appetites after the U.S. new home sales was reported to rise by 26.9% which is the largest rise since April 1963 (31.2%). In addition, U.S. durable goods which came in weaker than expected at -1.3% in March versus the economists' forecast of an increase of 0.3% and upwardly revised 1.1% rise in February. The finance ministers and central bankers from the top 20 industrialized nations begin another economic summit in Washington on Friday. On top of the discussion list will be Greece's debt problems and the revaluation of the Chinese yuan. Economic data to be released next week include: Japan CSPI on Monday, Australia PPI, business confidence, Germany Gfk index, import price index, export price index, U.K. CBI distribution trade, consumer confidence, U.S. Midwest manufacturing, consumer confidence on Tuesday, Japan retail sales, Australia CPI, Germany CPI, HICP and U.S. rate decision on Wednesday. U.K. House price, Germany unemployment rate, E.U. Business climate, economic sentiment and U.S. jobless claims on Thursday. U.K. Gfk survey, Japan household spending, CPI, industrial production, housing start, unemployment rate, construction orders, E.U. HICP flash, unemployment rate, Swiss KOF indicator, U.S. PCE, GDP deflator, Chicago PMI, Canada GDP and PPI on Friday.

Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/JPY

Update time: 25/04/2010 23:25 GMT USD/JPY - 93.97.. Despite dlr's initial weakness to 91.60 last Monday, subsequent strg rebound to 94.43 confirms correction fm 94.78 (Apr 02) has ended there n the MT erratic rise fm 84.82 (Nov 09') wud resume to 95.10, being 61.8% r of the MT intermediate fall fm 101.45 to 84.82, then 95.70 (61.8% proj. of 88.14 to 94.78 measured fm 91.60), however, as daily oscillators' readings wud display 'bearish divergences' on such move, reckon 97.10, which is equality measurement of 84.82 to 93.78 projected fm 88.14 wud cap upside. Today, dlr's retreat to 93.85 (N.Z.) after Friday's cross-inspired rally to 94.43 suggests initial choppy consolidation is in store, as long as sup at 93.31 (Friday's low) holds, gain twd this year's high at 94.78 is envisaged, abv wud encourage for further headway twd 95.1 0. On the downside, failure to penetrate 94.43 n a firm breach of 93.31 wud 'prolong' choppy consolidation below 94.78 n may risk stronger retracement of last Monday's rise fm 91.60 to 93.02 (50% r) but near term good sup area at 92.74/80 shud remain intact n yield another rebound later this week. Click here to enlarge chart

Weekly Technical Outlook on GBP/USD

Update time: 25/04/2010 23:47 GMT GBP/USD - 1.5388.. Although cable ratcheted higher after extending recent fall fm 1.5524 to 1.5192 last Monday, subsequent strg retreat fm 1.5476 (Thur) suggests price wud continue to 'gyrate' inside the broad range of 1.5192-1.5524 this week with initial upside bias n as long as res at 1.5476 holds, another sharp retreat is envisaged later, a breach of 1.5295 sup wud confirm sterling's correction fm 2010 low of 1.4781 has ended there, then stronger retracement of the aforesaid rise twd 1.5065 (being a 'dynamic' 61.8% r) wud be seen. Looking ahead, only abv 1.5524 wud defer MT bearishness on the British pound as such a move wud yield subsequent headway to 1.5620 (50% r of intermediate fall fm 1.6459 to 1.4781) b4 prospect of another decline in May. Today, Friday's euro-led rally fm 1.5295 is expected to keep price trading with a firm intra-day undertone n gain to 1.5435/45 is likely once nr term good res at 1.5399 is penetrated, as hourly oscillators' readings wud be in over bought territory on further rise, reckon res at 1.5476 wud cap upside n yield subsequent fall. Below 1.5315/21 sup wud bring re-test of 1.5295, then 1.5258.

Apr 22 , 2010

Dear Traders ...

How you all doing ? Hopefully everything is fine as same as market are doing fine .. huhuh
As far as we all know that currently market goes very slow..It almost like as side way for GBP/USD..but for EUR/USD it is very volatile...
By the way, what is passed already passed ... So then we have to look forward now..Let we see what we have for Fundamental Analysis

Well this is what we have for Fundamental Analysis from Forex Factory ...

It will start with 3 am EST which is by overall i can see that EUR will Bullish soon ... It is because it is show us that the Fundy ( Fundamental Analysis ) is about the manufacturing and services provide by them..All are good in forecast..

Hence for GBP i can see that for today it will Bearish soon..Why ? It was because from the Fundy we can see that it is about Net borrowing are increasing means money goes out for GBP same as the Retails Sales are decline means it is drop too much from 2.1% to 0.7% and also for mortage apporval are increasing which means money from BOE lendend to other parties are hawkish..
Well for USD Unemployment Claims are decreasing from the past data means that USD will Bullish soon..

Anyway that is all form the Fundy .. Then how about the Tech Analysis ??

Well then let we see for

EUR/USD


Well then, this is what i got from my H1 chart ...
From the chart pattern i cant see anything. By the way from the trendline for the minor(red) it already reach the highest limit and for the major(blue) indicating still ongoing to the highest..Confirmation is the price action breach the red trendline then will go long until it reach the highest of blue trendline since the SSD and RSI are pointing up from the oversold level..Even so that MACD is still below the 0-level, be cautious and once SSD and RSI approching the overbought level surely it will turn back to Bearish...

GBP/USD
Well then for the GBP/USD this is what i got from my H1 chart ...
For the chart pattern i also cant see anything same as EUR/USD .. Well then for the Trendline aslo everything has reach the highest level same as SSD and RSI are also in the top, just waiting it confirm cross over the overbought level then is will go bearish since MACD is still above the 0-level, also need confirmation on appearing their histogram below one...


I am strongly believe that what ever you can see is just you do it .. Thats is how trading work..

Anyway just bare in your mind that Trading is always like a fishing and not catching ... Happy trading :)

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• How to Backtest and Optimize Strategies via MT4 with Luke Quinn
• Trading Against the Crowd with Antonio Sousa
• Strategy Development: Correct Strategies on Correct Markets with Jeremy Wagner
• Tools and Techniques of Successful Black Box Traders with Randy Rupan
• China and India: Impact on the Global Currency Market with Ilya Spivak
• And many more!—View full schedule of workshops

All of our instructors and presenters will be available between workshops for you to meet personally.

Register for the FXCM Currency Trading Expo Today

Not only are the Expo workshops free, but FXCM has set aside a limited number of discount hotel rooms for our Expo sign ups. Reserve your discounted hotel room at the Rio today.

Improve your Risk/Reward ratio: Stay in Vegas for free!

We’ll be raffling off ten complimentary rooms at the Rio. Reference FXCM when booking a room at the Rio for May 2, May 3, or May 4, and you will not only receive a discount, but you will also be automatically entered in our drawing to have your Rio room fee reimbursed. You must book by April 16 to qualify for this drawing. Reserve your Hotel Room at the Rio

To learn more, or to receive specific answers to your questions, please feel free to contact us at 1-888-50-FOREX (36739), or e-mail us at info@fxcm.com. Our specialists are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Best Regards,

FXCM
Financial Square
32 Old Slip, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10005
1-888-50-FOREX (36739)
info@fxcm.com
www.fxcmexpo.com

Apr 19 , 2010

Hello traders ...
How all are you doin ? Keeping good PIPS huh ? Well done all .. keep on it ..

So what we have today in Forex Factory for Fundamental Analysis .. Let check it out ...
Well then .. seems like no Major Speculative around, it just the Fed Speaks on 2100hr LT ..

Anyway nevermind, so today movement definitely from the chart itself such as chart pattern wave abd etc .. I always refer to Fundamental 1st because even Fundamental Analysis give 10% market movement but it give market injection ...

Ok now lets we see what we have in Technical Analysis
EUR/USD


Well then here is the EUR/USD chart H1 for today .. Let we see ..
Seems like for the Chart Pattern there is NONE i can see ...
For the SSD and RSI it show already oversold and its pointing up. Be carefull and make sure that it cross 1st the oversold line 25% then it will correction for bullish soon.
So how about the MACD , seems like MACD is still under the 0-level and it show continue Bearish..While the Trendline line still in Red and just breech the blue(UpTL)..
I will take another Short position since today there have a GAp and normally it will fulfill the GAp 1st and the Bearish continue...
GBP/USD


So here is the GBP/USD chart H1..The GAP is 100+ pips !!
Does it will recover the GAp ? Let we see if there is a correction for the GAp movement for today...Well for the Chart Pattern, i can say that it is Inverse Falg and its mean will continue Bearish soon ...
Well for the SSD and RSI is already oversold and its seems like pointing up, but need confirmation on crossing the Oversold Line (23%) 1st..Once confirm then i will follow to fulfill the GAp for today and continue trend is Bearish..
MACD is still below 0-level and will continue BEarish movement for today..Unless if the histogram appear above 0-level,then correction for GAP will fulfill for today..


So herewith is the weekly analysis from Ace Traders ... Enjoy !!

Market Review - 17/04/2010 03:39GMT

Dollar and yen rally on news of Goldman fraud charges Dollar together with the Japanese yen rallied across the board on Friday as news of fraud charges brought by U.S. regulators led to selloff in global stocks markets, spooking investors to unwind risky assets and fled to U.S. dollar and the yen as safe haven. Renewed market woes over Greece's debt problems added pressure on the euro. Versus the Japanese yen, the dollar was under intense selling pressure and declined from 93.15 in Australia on risk aversion due to renewed woes on Greece's debt problems. Despite brief but strong rebound to 93.11 in European mid-day due to a Japan lawmaker's call for monetary easing, the pair later tumbled to 91.90 in NY mid-day as the news of Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) was charged with fraud by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission spooked the market, leading investors to dump riskier assets such as stocks and euro for safe haven currencies like yen and dollar. Both commodity currencies and stocks tumbled on renewed risk aversion and DJI ended the day down by 125.91 points at 11018.66. Aud/jpy slumped from 86.99 to 84.94 while gbp/jpy weakened from 144.09 to 141.37 and eur/jpy also dropped from 126.40 to 123.86. The single currency remained under pressure throughout the day. Despite a brief pullback to 1.3586, euro retreated from there and tumbled below Thursday's low of 1.3521 to 1.3472 on active cross selling in euro versus the Japanese yen due to renewed risk aversion caused by the Goldman news. Uncertainty on how the EU-IMF aid would work in practice continued to pressure euro. In other news, EU posted 2.6 billion euros trade surplus in February versus the economists' forecast of a 1.0 billion deficit while EU inflation in March was 0.9% as expected. On the economic front, U.S. hous ing starts rose by 1.6% to 626,000 unit rate in March (forecast was 610,000 unit rate) versus 616,000 in February whilst building permits increased by 7.5% to 685,000 unit rate against the economists' forecast of 630,000. U.S. Michigan consumer sentiment came in at 69.5, well below the economists' expectation of 75.0. Economic data to be released on next week include: U.K. Rightmove hse prices, Japan Consumer confidence, U.S. Leading indicators on Monday, New Zealand CPI, Germany PPI, EU Current account, U.K. CPI, Germany ZEW index, Canada BOC rate decision on Tuesday, Japan Leading indicators, U.K. Avg. earnings, U.K. Claimant count, U.K. ILO unemployment rate, Canada Wholesale sales on Wednesday, Japan Trade balance, Swiss Trade balance, Germany Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, EU Manufacturing PMI, Services PMI, U.K. Retail sales, Swiss ZEW index, U.S. Jobless claims, PPI, Existing home sales, Canada Leading indicators on Thursday, Germany Ifo index, U.K. GDP, EU Industrial orders, Canada CPI, U.S. Durable goods, U.S. New home sales, Canada Retail sales on Friday.

Weekly Technical Outlook on EUR/USD

Update time: 18/04/2010 23:50 GMT EUR/USD - 1.3490.. Despite last Monday's gap-up opening n intra-day rise to 1.3692, euro was unable to penetrate this res lvl n later ratcheted lower, price fell to 1.3472 on active cross-selling in euro esp vs yen, this move signals the recent corrective rise fm 2010 low at 1.3267 has made a top there n although downside bias remains for weakness twd 1.3400/05, broad outlook continues to be consolidative n reckon 1.3350 wud contain weakness n bring rebound. Selling euro for resumption of decline fm 1.3692 is favoured, however, profit shud be taken on next decline as o/sold readings on the hourly oscilla- tors suggest a strg rebound may take place later this week. On the upside, a move back abv 1.3595 (previous sup) wud confirm pullback is over but only break of 1.3692 wud extend gain to 1.37 69, being 38.2% r of 1.4580-1.3267. Today, w/end news of German n then the British govt. wud make a probe on Goldman on its alleged fraud in its market of a subprime mortgage product has pushed price to 1.3455 in Aust. due to risk aversion, weakness to 1.3446 is seen but 1.3400/05 wud hold. Only abv 1.3542 wud risk recovery twd 1.3586 b4 down. Click here to enlarge chart

Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/CHF

Update time: 19/04/2010 01:10 GMT USD/CHF - 1.0637.. Although euro's 'gap-up' opening last Monday pushed dlr to 1.0532 n renewed selling interest at 1.0617 pressured price below said sup lvl to as low as 1.0503 on Wednesday, subsequent selloff in euro helped the pair to rebound n price rallied to 1.0634 in NY on dlr's broad-based strength due to the news of Goldman fraud charges by U.S. SEC Friday. Looking at a bigger picture, dlr's strg rebound fm 1.0503 suggests decline fm 1.0786 has formed a temporary low there n further volatile trading abv this month's low of 1.0435 wud continue. The intra-day breach of Friday's 1.0634 high to 1.0655 in Australia suggests as long as 1.0557 holds, consolida- tion with upside bias remains for further headway to 1.0689, however, as minor bearish diverging signals may display on t he hourly oscillators, further sharp rise beyond 1.0733 (being 1.618 times proj. of 1.0503-1.0612 measured fm 1.0557) is unlikely to be seen today. In view of abv analysis, buying dlr on dips is still favoured with stop below 1.0557, a breach of this lvl may risk possible re-test of 1.0503 sup.

Anyway, happy trading and start your trading while EUR open market by 1500hr LT ... :)

Apr 14 , 2010

Hello traders .....

So how you all doing ? Yesterday movement is sideways right .. So nevermind then, we will forecast for today movement ..

As usual we will see the Forex Factory first ... To check what Fundamental Analysis that we have for today ...

So we have all USD fundamental by 830 pm LT and 10pm for Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies.

For the Core Retails and Retails Sales , i can see that USD weaknesses and for the CPI instead there is no changes..So what we have to do is, during that particular time, we need to apply Breakout Strategy..How? By using the Trendline also can, and Support Resistant Level..

Ok then, let we see the Technical Analysis for

EUR/USD

Ok now..For the chart pattern, i cant see anything about it..


For SSD and RSi , as we can see that both already in the Overbought level .. If we want to Sell we must wait until both cross the Overbought level (75) .


For MACD , it is above the 0-level, but it show that VT(Very Top)..I can say that EUR/USD will bearish soon...





GBP/USD

Well , for the GBP/USD also the same as EUR/USD forecast..
Chart Pattern : NoNe
SSD n RSI : already overbought and we have to wait until in confrm cross the overbought line(75)
MACD : it still above the 0-level but it has VT(very top) indication

I can say that GBP/USD wanna go bearish but make sure all indicator is confirm since today is Wednesday, most of the chart movement is vary volatile...

By the way, see you tomorow for the latest forecast ad the result for today forecacst..

Happy Trading ... :)

Apr 13 , 2010

Hello traders ....
How you are doing ? Hope everyone make good trade day by day ..
So then , what we have fpr today ... ? As usual, let go first Forex Factory ...
So nothing interesting to know for noe unless for Trade Balance GBP and USD ...

For the GBP, I can say that during that news, it will bearish..Why am i said so ? It was because the forecast increasing..For the USD then, during that time, USD will bullish . By the way , we see result on that particular time...

So what we have for technical analysis ..
For EUR/USD


So for the chart pattern, there is NONE .
Stoch and RSI : is above Oversold line and piloting up. SO i can see that it will goin up furthermore to reach its limit or to reach the lower high and continue berish.
How about MACD ? Well then , currently it still below 0-level and its mean its still bearish movement.Usless if it is open new histogram above 0-level then we need to forecast again.

So let see for the GBP/USD ...

Well then, what i can see here is the same as the Eur/Usd forecast...
Chart patterm : NONE
Stoch & RSI : pointing up for current candle until it reach the trendline and by the way it will reach overbought level and during the time it will fundamental effect since i already forecast that GU wil further more bearish. Any way, we need to confirm their actual value for further movement.
Macd : its still under 0-level and means Bearish..Same as EU, if histogram appear at above 0-level , we do the forecast again and do trade..

So what is actually trader's job ? Is just do the forecst and trade ...

See you tomorrow ... Happy Trading !!! :)

FXCM Expo

Dear Trader:

Las Vegas has it all—warm days, sunshine and…forex traders?! Take your trading knowledge to the next level at the FXCM Expo from May 3 to May 4. Visit www.fxcmexpo.com for more information. Traveling to Las Vegas is now especially affordable.

DailyFX analysts and course instructors will be teaching over 60 workshops. In our 60+ free workshops, you can learn skills, tips, tools, and techniques that can save you pips in your account. Below are some of the exclusive workshops we will be offering:

• How to Backtest and Optimize Strategies via MT4 with Luke Quinn
• Trading Against the Crowd with Antonio Sousa
• Strategy Development: Correct Strategies on Correct Markets with Jeremy Wagner
• Tools and Techniques of Successful Black Box Traders with Randy Rupan
• China and India: Impact on the Global Currency Market with Ilya Spivak
• And many more!—View full schedule of workshops

All of our instructors and presenters will be available between workshops for you to meet personally.

Register for the FXCM Currency Trading Expo Today

Not only are the Expo workshops free, but FXCM has set aside a limited number of discount hotel rooms for our Expo sign ups. Reserve your discounted hotel room at the Rio today.

Improve your Risk/Reward ratio: Stay in Vegas for free!

We’ll be raffling off ten complimentary rooms at the Rio. Reference FXCM when booking a room at the Rio for May 2, May 3, or May 4, and you will not only receive a discount, but you will also be automatically entered in our drawing to have your Rio room fee reimbursed. You must book by April 10 to qualify for this drawing. Reserve your Hotel Room at the Rio

To learn more, or to receive specific answers to your questions, please feel free to contact us at 1-888-50-FOREX (36739), or e-mail us at info@fxcm.com. Our specialists are available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

Best Regards,

FXCM
Financial Square
32 Old Slip, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10005
1-888-50-FOREX (36739)
info@fxcm.com
www.fxcmexpo.com

Apr 06 , 2010

Dear Traders ...

As usual, we will see the Forex Factory to know what we have for the Fundamental Analysis today.
In fact, some one will say fundamental analysis give only 10% movement market, but it will give the market injection for the current movement.I just highlighted which are the Fundamental Analysis will give market injection..1st we have FOMC meeting and for tomorrow we have JPY Overnite Call Rate..By the way, the call rate for JPY tomorrow is same 0.1% previous 0.1% forecast..Hurm,seems like we need another sources for the call rate..same as FOMC meeting,we need to know either improvement or static strength for the USD.

So then,both news need more sources, then we go for the Technical Analysis
EUR/USDSo the Chart Pattern for this pair i can say NONE .. As Dan Zanger teach his student, 'open the chart see for the 5 secs, tell me what you see in your chart ? '

So then .. Let we see for the trendline..it already exceed the trendline and here i can say that the movement will find the retracement level and the retracement level will definitely in the Red trendline and continue Bearish movement.

MACD is still under the 0-level but for Stochastic and RSI it already oversold,witing them to reach overbought level and i definitely continue Bearish movement...

GBP/USDSo what we hae in this GBP/USD ? Seems like same as the EUR/USD .. For the explaination,also same..

For the Chart Pattern : NONE
Trendline : Exceed , draw retracement and definitely in the Red trendline,parking oreder for next Bearish movement

MACD : still under 0-level and continue Bearish
SSD n RSi : Oversold level, waiting them to reach ovebought and get postion


Thats all for today i think..if have question ask me here or email me as per beside address..

Happy trading ... :)

Apr 04 , 2010

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Tel: (877) 229-0004
Email: sales@fxcm.com

Apr 02 , 2010

Hello traders .....
So how are you doing ? Hope good ... Im here today for give some knowledge how to trade Forex ..
Yesterday is a very good movement seems like all my forecast is out of range...
Nevermind, let us see what we have for today ...

As usual we go to Forex Factory to see what type of Fundamental we have for today

Well .. we have Non-Farm Payroll today ... and what we can see all major currency such as GBP, EUR, CHF, CAD is Bank Holiday ... It might be though to forecast for NFP today ...

Ok then...Normally i do forecast for NFP is using Unemployment data, but today FF only have Employment rate which is same as previous..

How about we see what we have in Technical Analysis .. .

EUR/USD


In EUR/USD ...

Chart Pattern is NONE .. Meaning that i can see the chart pattern in this time frame(1H)..
If we see the Stochastics and RSI is already oversold, which mean it gonna Bulish soon..But we have to wait confirmation at 25% level..
For the MACD , it still above the 0-level which mean that the trend in this time frame is still Bullish
For the current movement, i will parking order at lowest at blue line

GBP/USD
So the GBP/USD show same as what EUR/USD...
Chart pattern : NONE
Stochastics and RSI show pointing up soon, but still need confirmation once cross 25% level as i determined as Oversold level
MACD is below the 0-level..This make the current trend is bearish,so then i will wait and park my order at top for Short ...

Thats for today .. see you the result next week ... Happy Trading .. : )

**For NFP, u can apply the trendline knowledge since today USD might be great move ...

Apr 1 , 2010

Helllooo traders .....
How are you all doing ? Hope good yeah ...
So i already didn't update in here for 1 month, rite ? Well well well ... Never mind , i was BACK here ...

So as usual let we see what we have in Forex Factory


So we have here is Unemployment Claims for USD and ISM Manufacture for USD.
For unemployment i can say here it will be bullish for USD , why ? it was because previously is 442K but forecast is 440K, it mean decreasing for unemployment,so currency will increasing rite after the news happen..Furthermore we have to see how about the actual figure appear.
For ISM manufacture, it is more about Manufacture in US. The reading is is just if indicator changing is increasing, the currency also will decreasing...

So now let we see the Technical Analysis for

EUR/USD
So for this chart, i can say that i will change to Bearish..But it must cut thru the blue line and make sure a big red ball appear,then it definitely Bearish..
For the chart pattern i can see it has Double Top
For MACD : on the 0-level and once it appear under the 0-level it will go bearish
For SSD n RSi : its already at oversold level, i have to wait it pointing up for the last move before it will turn down.

GBP/USD

So what we have in Gbp/USD ? it is playing at overbought level rite ?
Chart pattern say it has Double Top, mean it want to go Bearish after this.
MACD : it still above the 0-level..so we have to wait until it appear below the 0-level.
SSD & RSI : still playing at overbought level

What ever it is, we have to make sure that all the indicator make a clear and confirm before we enter any position..

Happy Trading ... See you tomorrow for the result ... :)

FXCM update

Dear Client:

On February 24, 2010, FXCM experienced a series of incorrect ASK prices in the following instruments: USD/CHF, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, NZD/USD, EUR/AUD, and AUD/NZD.

This affected a small portion of our MT4 clients. To resolve this issue FXCM found it necessary to roll back affected accounts later that afternoon to their status as of 10:26 a.m. (EST) of February 24, 2010.

Unfortunately, this solution caused an unanticipated consequence resulting in many MT4 accounts trading at this time experiencing delays in execution. As a result, many MT4 accounts were not able to place trades between 6 p.m. (EST) Wednesday, February 24, 2010, and 11 a.m. (EST) Thursday, February 25, 2010.

We at FXCM sincerely apologize for this incident. We are conducting a thorough investigation of the causes behind the incidents and will implement a plan to prevent future occurrences.

If you were negatively impacted by these events, please log the details of your trade at the following link as soon as possible: http://www.fxstatus.com/audit-form.html. Enter your account number, ticket numbers (if available), and full details of the trades impacted. Our client services team will be in touch with you regarding the appropriate adjustment to your account.

Thank you for understanding.

Best regards,

Forex Capital Markets Ltd.
145 Leadenhall Street
2nd Floor Rear
London EC3V 4QT
+0808 234 8789
info@fxcm.co.uk


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